Nvidia Earnings Meet Chair Warsh as Debt Markets Dictate the Narrative

The 30-year US Treasury yield hit a 19-year high of 5.337% on Tuesday, 18 August, its highest since 2007, and equities fell for the week. Last week's direction came from the bond market rather than from earnings or policy. Three scheduled events now sit on top of that. July core inflation will land before the open on Wednesday, 26 August. Nvidia is scheduled to report its earnings after the close the same day, having guided to revenue of $91.0 billion plus or minus 2%. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first Jackson Hole keynote at 10:00am Eastern Time on Friday, 28 August. Here’s the week ahead:

TL;DR

• Nvidia guided to $91.0 billion plus or minus 2% and a non-GAAP gross margin near 75%, against $46.74 billion and 72.7% a year earlier.

• Warsh told reporters on 29 July that he had not yet chosen between a structural address and a conventional policy-path setup, calling the speech a blank piece of paper.

• Markets price roughly one-in-three odds of a quarter-point rise at the 15-16 September FOMC meeting, down from about 82% in late-July after a run of soft data.

• July core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is scheduled for Wednesday, 26 August, at 08:30am Eastern Time, two days before the keynote.

• The August jobs report and August CPI both land between the keynote and the September decision, so Friday will not be the last word.

What Happened?

Last week the S&P 500 fell 1.4% and the Nasdaq Composite declined 2%, both snapping three-week winning streaks. Higher Treasury yields and firmer oil weighed on risk appetite, with oil prices supported by unresolved conflict in the Middle East. Walmart reported earnings on Thursday, 20 August, beating on sales and raising full-year guidance, but the shares fell as US comparable sales growth missed and management flagged just over $2 billion of fuel-cost headwinds for the year. 

The pressure originated at the long end of the curve. The 30-year yield hit a 19-year high of 5.337% on Tuesday, 18 August, its highest since 2007, in a selloff that also drove Canadian 30-year yields to their highest since 2010 and German rates to 2011 levels. Term premium, the extra compensation traders require for holding long-dated government debt, stood at 0.80 percentage points on 13 August on the New York Fed's ACM model, against 0.51 at the end of June. Part of that is fiscal and part is a read on the new chair. According to Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg reported that after the July meeting traders took Warsh's reluctance to commit as a lack of resolve on returning inflation to target, and long-dated yields climbed to a two-decade high in the weeks that followed. (Source: Yahoo Finance)

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an increase in long-term debt buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The relief in yields proved short-lived. The 10-year closed Friday around 4.734%, the 30-year at roughly 5.273%. Nvidia closed Friday, 21 August 2026, at $214.72, down 4.6% across the week. 

NVDA Earnings Preview: What to Expect from Nvidia Earnings 

Nvidia guided to revenue of $91.0 billion plus or minus 2% for the fiscal second quarter, which ran from late April to 26 July 2026. The comparable quarter a year earlier produced $46.74 billion in revenue and $1.05 in adjusted earnings per share (EPS). It is estimated a cluster just above the guidance midpoint, with $91.71 billion at Zacks, with adjusted earnings near $2.08 a share. The guidance assumes no China data centre compute revenue, and the year-ago quarter recorded no H20 sales to China-based customers, though a $180 million inventory-reserve release flattered that quarter's margin by four tenths of a point.

As of the time of the writing, Nvidia carries a market capitalisation of approximately $5.2 trillion, which makes index concentration part of the story. A single result can move the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 without reflecting broad participation, so breadth may tell traders more than the index level does.

Nvidia reports after the US close on Wednesday, 26 August. Beyond the headline figures, the anchor is margin: the company guided to a non-GAAP gross margin of about 75%, against 72.7% a year earlier. Nvidia has also come in above its own revenue guidance in every recent quarter, with the size of the beat compressing to 4.6% last quarter, when $81.6 billion of revenue landed against a $78.0 billion guidance midpoint, so the second-half outlook may matter more than the reported quarter.

Marvell, Salesforce and CrowdStrike Earnings Expectations

Marvell Technology is scheduled to report after the close on Thursday, 27 August, with analysts expecting revenue of approximately $2.71 billion, up roughly 35% from a year earlier. Two semiconductor results inside 48 hours give a second read on AI infrastructure demand rather than a single-company one.

Salesforce and CrowdStrike are both scheduled for Wednesday, 26 August. Salesforce carries a read on enterprise willingness to pay for AI agents and cloud software, while CrowdStrike offers a read on security budgets, which tend to hold up better than discretionary software spend.

What Can a Debut Jackson Hole Keynote Signal?

Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair on 22 May 2026, so Friday is his first symposium in the chair's seat. Asked on 29 July whether Wyoming was the autumn reset, he described the speech as a blank piece of paper and said he had not chosen between a structural address and a conventional policy-path setup. He has curtailed forward guidance at every opportunity since taking office, shortening the post-meeting statement and giving deliberately non-committal answers at both press conferences held so far. 

The announced symposium theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy", which is structural rather than cyclical. That leaves the risk two-sided. A keynote that says little is still a market event, because positioning built around an expected signal may need to be unwound. A keynote that leans on price stability would be the larger surprise, given how far September pricing has already fallen.

The context is a committee that is publicly split. The July FOMC held the target range at 3.50% to 3.75% by nine votes to three, with Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan each preferring a quarter-point increase. That is the first time since September 2016 that three policymakers have dissented in the same direction, and unusually wide for a chair's second meeting. 

Rate pricing has moved a long way since. The implied chance of a quarter-point rise at the 15-16 September meeting stood near 82% in late-July and now sits near one in three. The repricing followed a run of soft prints: July retail sales fell for the first time in nine months, payrolls showed an unexpected net loss of 23,000, and July producer prices were flat against a 0.2% consensus. The August jobs report and August Consumer Price Index (CPI) both land between the keynote and the decision, so Friday is unlikely to settle the question either way.

Wednesday Carries Two Different Signals

July core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is scheduled for 08:30am Eastern Time on Wednesday. The Cleveland Fed's inflation nowcast points to a monthly core rise near 0.27% for August 2026  and roughly 3.3% year on year, which would keep it well above the Fed's 2% goal.

The same 08:30 slot carries the second estimate of second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with the advance estimate at 1.5%, plus the Census Bureau's durable goods orders for July. 

So Wednesday brackets the session. A macro print before the open, an earnings print after the close, and an index in between that may respond to both. The 2-year yield is where a macro surprise usually registers first, and it is the cleaner read in the hours before the equity open.

Why Are Short-Term and Long-Term Rates Moving Apart?

The distinction that matters this week is between the short end and the long end. Core PCE and the September question feed the 2-year yield. Government borrowing, a heavy schedule of long-dated sales and five years of above-target inflation feed the 30-year.

Those two can move independently, and last week they did. The US dollar index fell to a three-month low even as yields rose, a combination more consistent with fiscal concern than with yield attraction. Gold reached an over three-month high partly on renewed concern about US fiscal sustainability.

The US dollar index touched 98.80 on 21 August, its lowest since 14 May, and was still near 98.80 on 21 August even as yields rose, a combination more consistent with fiscal concern than with yield attraction. Gold price reached an over three-month high of $4,601.29 on Friday 21 August 2026, its highest since 15 May, partly on renewed concern about US fiscal sustainability.

The spread between the 2-year and the 30-year closed Friday near 104 basis points and is the single most useful running indicator here. If it widens while equities fall, the driver may be term premium rather than policy expectations, and a September decision would not resolve it.

What Else to Monitor This Week

Tuesday, 25 August

The Conference Board publishes consumer confidence for August on Tuesday morning, a read on the household side ahead of Wednesday's spending data.

Wednesday, 26 August

Core PCE, personal income and personal spending for July are scheduled for 08:30am Eastern Time, alongside the second estimate of second-quarter GDP with corporate profits and durable goods orders for July. Nvidia, Salesforce and CrowdStrike are each scheduled to report after the US close.

Thursday, 27 August

The Jackson Hole symposium opens at Jackson Lake Lodge in Wyoming, running to Saturday, 29 August. Marvell Technology is scheduled to report after the close.

Friday, 28 August

Warsh delivers the keynote at 10:00am Eastern Time. The final University of Michigan sentiment reading for August is scheduled for the same morning.

Conclusion  

Three events, three different questions. Wednesday morning asks what inflation is doing, Wednesday evening asks what AI spending is doing, and Friday asks what a new Fed chair is willing to say. Behind all three sits a long end of the curve that has been moving for reasons none of the week's scheduled events will settle.

*Past performance does not guarantee future results. The above is for marketing and general informational purposes only, and these are only projections and should not be taken as investment research, investment advice or a personal recommendation.